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Glossary
Forecasting and judgement
How a forecast is made, scored and revised, and what confidence means when evidence is thin.
B
Base rate
C
Calibration
Confidence level
Counter-evidence
E
Early-warning system
Expected outcome
F
Flight risk
Forecast horizon
Forecast resolution
L
Leading indicators of transformation health
R
Resolution window
Review point
S
Scenario run
Scored forecast
T
Track record
U
Uncertainty statement